UN Expnasion and balance of power

By Aamir Hakeem

Expansion of United Nations Security Council (UNSC), the major issue of the forthcoming September summit, seems to be in doldrums as US and China, the two veto powers, have found reasons to oppose it. The so-called G-4 (Brazil, Germany, India and Japan) are urging for the expansion of UNSC along with African Union (AU), while on the other side, it is being argued that time is not ripe yet for change.

A deadlock has emerged, as the negotiations between G-4 and AU are not finalised. UN Secretary General Kofi Anan wants to see the ten years of debate reach some conclusion. The world media recently quoted him saying, "The 15 member Security Council needed to be expanded because it was no longer democratic...there is a democracy deficit in the UN governance that has to be corrected."

An expansion in the role of United Nations is being deliberated for the last many years. At the millennium summit, the speakers suggested enhanced role for the body vis-a-vis environmental governance, educational efforts for world peace and global governance etc. Gorbachev proposed radical expansion of the UN powers and reiterated his 1998 idea of Economic Council and Environmental Council with authority equal to the Security Council. The 9/11 incident and the US led Afghan and Iraq wars shadowed the debate for UN expanded role but now the issue of the expansion of Security Council is being raised again as the UN summit is approaching.
Currently, there are three different proposals for the expansion of the Security Council. G-4 is demanding addition of six permanent seats without veto power and four non- permanent seats. Veto decision for newly permanent members is suspended for fifteen years. G-4 demands four permanent seats for itself and two are delegated to African Union to get their support. Another group is seeking 10 non-permanent members only.

The African Union, a group of 53 nations, has proposed the expansion of Security Council to 26 members; six permanent seats with veto power and five non-permanent seats on the rotation of two years. The AU draft demands two permanent seats and two non-permanent seats for African Union. Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa are the prospective candidates for the African Union seats. Some recent reports claim that Nigerian Foreign Minister Adeniji, leading an 18-member team to resolve the differences over expansion, signalled AU's readiness to compromise the veto power.

The United Nation was formally created in 1945 and a balance of power was established by the victors of WW II by taking the permanent seats in the Security Council with veto power. Why the UN Security Council needs expansion and how can the expanded body guarantee world peace? The world's security features have changed after the communication revolution. World is heading towards globalisation. Decolonisation has paved the way for the third world to emerge on the canvas as sovereign and responsible nations. Japan, the victim of nuclear attacks and loser of the WW II, has proved herself a peaceful and productive nation. Now it is the second largest donor of the UN. The oil rich Middle Eastern states are also contributing significantly to the United Nations as the major source of funds for the UN is the contribution of member states based on their capacity to pay. The assessment criteria for contribution are several factors including the GNP and per capita incomes of the states.

The break-up of Soviet Union had great implications on the balance of power created after WW II. Balance of power is a system of international relations in which a nation seeks to maintain equilibrium of power with other states.

The criteria for the expansion of Security Council to maintain balance of power for world peace is not elaborated by expansion seekers; geographical area, contribution to UN, military and economic strength are the considered factors.

Interestingly, the physical expansion of the United Nations Head Quarter is also an issue as UN is in need of another building while the renovation of the existing one is also due. The United Nations Development Corporation plans to build a 35-storey building at a nearby park connecting the old tower through a tunnel that is being criticised by the local authorities of New York. A voice is also emerging for shifting the UN headquarters from the US. World Net Daily quotes former California Republican Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian as saying, "Blocking expansion (physical) is the best hope for getting the UN out of the US."

Apparently there is no international move to shift UN headquarters out of the US. The UN Development Corporation is seeking a loan of $1 billion from US to renovate the existing headquarters. But the structure and system of the UN decision-making is more important for world peace than the debate about renovation or relocation of its building. The more UN is functional, democratic and powerful, the better the prospects of world peace.

Though revamping the UN structure is the need of hour but the proposed expansion cannot guarantee world peace. World powers have different interests in different parts of the world. US initially signalled the inclusion of one or two states as permanent members of the Security Council as it wanted Japan to be given a permanent seat. But China has a different view on this matter. Indian humanitarian record and its regional conflicts are the stumbling blocks that impede her entry into the Security Council as a permanent member.

Instead of admitting new states into the Security Council, various organisations could be integrated in the process of war and peace and decision-making. European Union, Arab League, ASEAN, SAARC, African Union, OAS etc can be taken into account for the permanent seats at the UN security Council with limited veto power or consulted with regard to decisions for their respective regions. Veto power is entirely against the democratic norms. Instead of delegating this power to more single states, deliberations could be made to withdraw this power or to improve the criteria of veto i.e. the existing five veto powers make decisions democratically by getting three vetoes on one side.

The writer is an Islamabad-based columnist with a background in strategic studies.

The News International