Applying Nobel laureate Sen to Pakistan

Amartya Sen’s seminal work on social choices won him the Nobel prize in economics a couple of years ago. I had a chance to go to India recently and bought his recent work, The Argumentative Indian. One cannot but admire the person for his integrity and his application of the thought process to social choices and to freedom to choose. Economics is rather shy of all those non-economic factors that we intuitively know do matter. His work as an academician has a considerable amount of relevance to us in the subcontinent.

The recent tragedy made one wonder about the hows and whys of the situation. There were the Islamic relief people from the UK that managed to get to the Kashmiri population in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Then there was our government that did not manage to get to first base, and there were those from Britain who spent their own resources to try and help the unfortunate people. Humanity does wonders, and that is what this world is all about -- not about per capita incomes and certainly not about individual resources. If that was the case, then the unfortunate in the Margalla Towers would still be alive. When tragedy comes it comes in an unswerving wave and takes everyone with it. Nature’s architecture was not demolished. Man-made architecture was demolished, and we need to ask why. Unfortunate as it may seem, it is time to reflect and to prevent any more mishap(s). The morality of it does not help.T

he press is a wonderful arena for getting to understand the absurd and the ridiculous. Was there any need for anyone to defend a particular agency for lack of action? That they moved like the proverbial Spanish Armada and that they were not prepared nor trained for the tragedy and neither were they given any rudimentary indications of what to do, meant that were seen getting off the trucks, their weapons in hand, only to add to the din that was already there. We Pakistanis like to shout at the top of our voice and be heard, and the worse the tragedy, the louder we get. Ministers came and went. King Canute came and went. The underling of King Canute lived up to his traditions and flew to oversee the area of Islamabad when he was only a few minutes away from the place.

To come back to Sen, we have to understand his stance and the choice that is to be made available to the citizens of this country. The process and the procedure are important. A worthy Senator and Minister stated that the functions performed by the valiant forces were not their responsibility. Pray, what is their responsibility? Salaried as they are by the taxpayers and the people of Pakistan, are they available only for governance? We had the recent episode of a Matriculation certificate and the battle had to go to the Supreme Court for final decision. The gentleman was my Minister and I can tell you his decision making was as good as anyone’s. Formal education was immaterial. It is these hurdles that make for ridiculous interventions in direct contravention of the freedoms that these individuals must have. Sen mentions the tyranny of the religious classes but he forgets that there are many kinds of tyrannies, and each tyranny has to be dealt with in its own context. A former Minister was likewise asked to graduate. It was immaterial that the person had been a minister umpteen times. Some of these graduates are not ministers but monsters, trafficking as ministers. Look around you and you will be able to determine.

Freedom, of which the Nobel Laureate speaks, is directly linked with choices and these choices are available to only the few and fortunate. The rest of Pakistan is in bonded slavery. Take a cue from the land acquisition law. Why should the assets of the poor be taken away at peanut prices? Why should urban land be taken away by the high and mighty for development of the country when all it is doing is making more and more people poorer every day. The beneficiaries are different from the losers. Tarbela is an excellent example, and the case of Islamabad evacuees is also a question that should expose the power structure. Examine the development efforts anywhere and go beyond the numbers. The process is anything but transparent. The procedures have been violated. The guilty are not the poor but the rich. To whom are all those trees that are logged in AJK sent? I was working in Manoor valley, off the Kaghan valley, and I found that logging was going on and none of the principles were being followed. I asked who the contractor was. I was given the name of Shah Jehan, and how appropriate. What was auctioned at less than Rs. 100 a cubic meter was being sold by the scoundrel for more than eight times that price. Who were the beneficiaries? Search and you will find. I asked the locals whether they were the beneficiaries and the answer was in the negative. The road was kacha and the bridges were made of local logged wood. Infirm and unsure. It would take the better part of the day to reach 14 miles away, where I was supposed to be working.

But what of the power structure, the rules of business, the law, constitution, and how these have been perverted? Prof. D.P. Choudhry of Delhi University, a student of Sen, talked of a wobbly democracy in India. Whether the political situation is better with a wobbly democracy or a firm and erect authority needs some circumspect inspection. The choices that his mentor talks of are not available. Gender choices are definitely not available to the unfortunate and the rape of the environment has gone on to the rape of the gender. The reforms of the police have brought out the best in us. Unfettered, unlettered and undeterred, one of them raped a young boy in, of all places, Islamabad. Where society has suffered from natural and unnatural causes, one wonders how these matters will be resolved. Is there a critical point from where there is no way out but a blow up of society? The talk rambled on to the caste systems in India and Pakistan. Do the Daliths have a choice? Do the other castes other than those in power have a choice in Pakistan? Is the tribal belt not more tuned to flexibility, despite the fact that they are continuously under fire from the powers that be? In the name of terror, in the name of saving Pakistan, and in the name of so many excuses, we are entitled to prostitute whatever social systems we had.

For the moment suffice it so say, what choices did the poor have in the tragic areas? I asked my helper what the situation in his village was and whether he had suffered any loss. He had walked 90 kilometers. He said, ‘Allah ka shukar hai’. I sensed something was wrong and asked him a specific question. He replied a sister and two of her children were buried. ‘Baqi Allah ka shukar hai.’ Did any aid reach them (this was the eighth day)? The answer came simply in the negative. He was not bemoaning his loss. He had accepted it, knowing that he will now have to slog much harder for his remaining extended family. The choice of migrating to another country is also no longer available. Yes, Mr. Sen. How to get from the comfort of an academic and to the nitty gritty of this society? Above all, how to come to terms with the tyranny of the rich and the powerful? They have their own culture and their own ways in each country.The Post

Pakistan's future bright despite quake:IMF

Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said on Monday that the death toll of the massive earthquake had touched 41,000 with over 67,000 injured.
Addressing a joint press conference with visiting Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Rodrigo de Rato here at the Prime Minister House on Monday evening, the prime minister said that Pakistan in the first phase had concentrated on the rescue and relief of the victims while in the second phase government had planned to rehabilitate, build infrastructure, including schools, hospitals and reconstruction of the quake hit areas.
He thanked the IMF for helping Pakistan in its difficult time in the past and added that Pakistan would continue to seek technical advice from the fund. He added that Pakistan had successfully completed the programmes of IMF especially the last programme of PRGF and migrated from the funds programme.
Shaukat said Pakistan would continue on the path of its reforms agenda which had put the country on the path of economic stability. He added that last year Pakistan had achieved a GDP growth of 8.4 per cent and was eying for around 7 per cent growth this year.
Pakistan, he said, was committed to deregulation, liberalisation and privatisation for more investment in the country. Director IMF Rodrigo de Rato, in his remarks, expressed his profound sympathy with the people and government of Pakistan over the devastation caused by the October 8 earthquake, which resulted in loss of precious lives and destruction of properties and infrastructure across the NWFP and Azad Kashmir.
He appreciated the government’s rapid response to the natural calamity and commended the spontaneous efforts which the citizens of Pakistan have mounted to mitigate the sufferings of the people of the NWFP and Azad Kashmir.
Discussing Pakistan’s economic situation, the IMF managing director said Pakistan had made remarkable economic progress in the past half decade and made good progress on structural reforms and lauded government’s resolve to carry forward the reform process in the future. He appreciated the recent efforts of the government to enhance supplies and tight monetary policy to lower inflation.
He said he met President Musharraf and Prime Minister Aziz, as well as key ministers. "I assured them that IMF stands ready to support Pakistan at this difficult time", he remarked. The IMF director said, "I saw some of the tragic human cost of the disaster. At children’s wing of Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences in Islamabad, I was deeply moved to visit children injured by the earthquake and was greatly impressed by the care they are receiving from dedicated medical staff and volunteers".
He added that he also met Abdul Sattar Edhi, the founder of Edhi Foundation, a local charity directly involved in helping earthquake victims. He said this was his first visit to Pakistan as IMF Managing Director. "The visit has provided me with an opportunity to commend the Pakistani authorities on the impressive economic gains they have attained in recent years by persistently following reform policies", he remarked.
The director said, "During my meetings, I recalled how the turnaround in Pakistan’s economy had been made possible by the implementation of market-oriented structural reforms, supported by macro-economic stabilisation".
The IMF supported financially the authorities’ programme through 2004. The success of the programme reflects not only the strength of policies, but also the strong commitment of the Pakistan government to the programme, he added.
Rato said fiscal consolidation and reform, banking system reform, privatization, and trade liberalisation had fundamentally transformed the economic landscape of Pakistan. They have significantly improved private sector confidence, debt indicators, and Pakistan’s ability to compete in the world economy, he remarked .
He said that the fruits of these efforts had been a strong recovery in economic growth. "Pakistan is confronting short-term economic challenges, including the need for emergency support and the need to rebuild the area affected by the earthquake", he added.
The international community was providing welcome assistance, but some temporary widening of the budget deficit might be unavoidable, he said. Meanwhile, the acceleration of economic growth has been accompanied by a pick up in inflation. The authorities’ efforts to reduce the inflationary pressures, and their initial success, were welcome, he added. He said further tightening of monetary policy might, however, be necessary.
Pakistan is also confronted with the sharp increase in international oil prices. The authorities have appropriately allowed a substantial pass-through of this increase into the domestic prices for petroleum products, to help safeguard the budgetary position.
"Over the medium term, the key challenge going forward for Pakistan is to sustain higher rates of economic growth and ensure that living standards are raised and poverty is reduced," he remarked. This, he said, would require substantial increases in investment.
Meeting this challenge requires consistent and sustainable macroeconomic policies and further improvement of the business environment. The strengthening of the delivery of public services to the poor is a particular need. It calls for the continuation of institutional reforms, and for additional domestic resource mobilization to meet higher expenditures in these areas. In this context, he urged the authorities to strengthen tax revenue collections, and to broaden the tax base.

The News International

Shaukat unveils 12-point plan for quake victims

Expressing the commitment of the government to turn the great devastation of earthquake into an opportunity for development, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz on Monday announced A 12-point development strategy plan to involve all agencies in the relief, recovery and reconstruction process in the affected areas.
"The entire recovery and rehabilitation operation could take five to ten years requiring $5 billion," he said while addressing the special session of the Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) Council at Prime Minister’s Secretariat here on Monday.
President AJK Sardar Muhammad Anwar Khan and Prime Minter Sardar Sikandar Hayat Khan were also present on the occasion. The council in its session reviewed the relief and rescue operations in AJK and discussed various suggestions to streamline and coordinate these efforts to further speed up such activities.
Addressing the council, the prime minister said about 40,000 lives have been lost so far with many others missing. The exact number of victims will take time to be known. Over 3 million people have lost their homes and livelihood.
He said nevertheless this catastrophe has galvanised the nation in a spirit of common humanity to provide succour to their fellow citizens in their hour of need. "They have responded as one people with an immense, spontaneous outpouring compassion and generosity on a scale never witnessed before," he added.
Outlining the 12-point strategy for development of the earthquake-hit areas for those involved in relief, recovery and reconstruction phases, the prime minister said first we must move survivors from rubbles to tents and decent transitional shelters as quickly as possible, ultimately moving towards construction of model cities for permanent settlement of homeless people while accounting for concerns regarding the "titling" issue.
Second, identify overlaps and gaps in relief in the impacted areas, regulate private, foreign and public sector relief goods and services and fill gaps that exist in the distribution of goods. Third, to gear up medical and trauma treatment for the injured.
Fourth, chalk out a detailed plan for permanent settlement of orphan boys and girls including their education. Fifth, arrange for transitional schools, hospitals, other public offices to restore the government structure.
Sixth, prepare reconstruction plan for the impacted areas including full restoration of infrastructure, setting priorities, coordinating support at the ground level and implementation of the plan in an accountable and transparent manner with participation from the people and their elected representatives.
Seventh, prepare "Transitioning from Tents to Communities Plan" entailing damage assessment, permanent shelter and housing programmes, credit and other livelihood programmes, and funding for cash-for-work programmes to help speed the move from tents to more permanent communities.
Eighth, plan to restore the livelihood of survivors; to finance new economic activities to raise family incomes above their pre-earthquake levels; and to increase the capacity of local governments, nongovernmental organisations and businesses to undertake reconstruction effort.
Nine, jobs for local people in the reconstruction will require large vocational training programmes as thousands of masons, woodworkers, supervisors and labourers are needed.
Ten, estimate financial resource requirements and identify gaps while devising a reporting system to ensure that donations are being used appropriately and a unified scorecard to show what we have achieved and what remains to be done.
Eleven, to develop a joint action plan detailing precisely who will do what, where and when, to avoid duplication of effort, ensuring efficient use of resources and leaving no person or community behind.
Twelfth, prepare model action plan for disaster preparedness and coordinate a coherent response to future disasters as well as crises including reinforced preventive measures and capacity for emergency response.
The prime minister said the government has chalked out a comprehensive plan to involved all agencies in the relief, recovery and reconstruction process in the affected areas. He said the federal government has provided leadership in the aftermath of the earthquake and has mounted its largest relief efforts ever.
He said uniform personnel, civil authorities, doctors, nurses and volunteers are engaged with great zeal in the relief activities and doing their utmost despite a number of constraints. Shaukat expressed confidence that with the assistance of our people and international community the government will be able to help the victims and recover their sufferings by rebuilding their homes and lives.
"Rebuilding the impacted areas is a monumental task that will take several years and it would involve restoration of damaged infrastructure, rebuilding of schools, a large number of hospitals as well as relocation and resettlement of hundreds of thousands of homeless people," he added.
The prime minister said a coordinated system would be required in the reconstruction and rehabilitation process after moving from relief an Earthquake Rehabilitation Authority has been set up to coordinate these efforts.
He assured the people of Azad Jammu and Kashmir that the people of Pakistan stand shoulder to shoulder with them in this difficult hour and would extend full support in their reconstruction process.
The prime minister extended deepest condolences to those who lost their near and dear ones and prayed for departed souls of the victims. He also expressed gratitude to all rescue workers, men and women, Armed Forces, civil authorities, civil society organizations and the general public who are making tireless efforts under severe condition in the impacted areas.

Islamabad seeks trauma teams: Pakistan on Monday put out a fresh appeal for more tents and blankets while seeking fully equipped medical trauma teams to treat over 65,000 badly injured people still arriving from the earthquake-affected areas.
Major-General Farooq Ahmed Khan, the recently appointed Federal Relief Commissioner, said medical and trauma teams with orthopaedic surgeons, volunteer doctors and paramedical staff along with, X-rays, CT Scan and other related equipment were urgently required.
He said the government had identified all areas affected by the 7.6-magnitude tremor on Oct 8. However, he said it was difficult to say when relief could reach all the inaccessible areas. Briefing newsmen about the relief operations, Maj-Gen Khan said the death toll might be revised from that of 39,422 as more bodies were being pulled out from the rubble. About the figure of 53,000 deaths as stated by the prime minister of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Gen Khan said the figures were estimates adding "we do not contest anyone’s words."
When asked about the figure of missing people, the relief commissioner said it would be a "heart-wrenching decision" as the tragedy was far greater than the tsunami. He said around 100,000 people had been affected in the Jhelum valley road, while 30,000 in the lower Neelum valley.
About the restoration of roads blocked by several landslides in Azad Kashmir, Maj-Gen Khan said both the Neelum and Jhelum valley roads would require "concerted" efforts of around four weeks to fully operationalise. However, he added that mules, air-drops by C-130s and helicopters were continuing in the affected areas.
Maj-Gen Khan said engineering teams along with heavy equipment from friendly countries were arriving in the country. These would be utilised to fully restore the Neelum valley road. He said Pakistan still required 260,000 tents and two million blankets for the people rendered homeless by the earthquake.
He said around 33,000 tents and 133,000 blankets had been distributed, while 40,000 were in the pipeline. These, he added, had been purchased by the government from abroad or are part of the donations from friendly countries.
Maj-Gen Khan said 6000 tents a day would soon be available from 37 factories in the Punjab. He said the funds in the President’s Relief Fund had risen to Rs 4 billion, while foreign assistance had gone up to $528.2 million, besides $51 million by the United Nations.
Maj-Gen Khan said that due to bad weather on Saturday and Sunday a few helicopter flights could operate but on Monday the evacuation of the injured began again and 1,200 sorties had so far been made.
About the concern shown by the people from across the country about the unaccompanied children, he said all hospitals had been directed to photograph all such children and to acquire their details and to keep them protected. Maj-Gen Khan said the Punjab government had offered 5000 beds in its hospitals at Lahore, Faisalabad and Multan and the injured would be shifted through C-130s and trains for those who could travel. He said 780 more beds were now available in Islamabad and around, while the Cantonment General Hospital in Rawalpindi was also being fully utilised.
He said that on Monday 1.2 tonnes of medical supplies, 2,300 tents, 19 tonnes of ration, 10,000 blankets, 13 tonnes of water and miscellaneous items were sent. Electricity supply was restored almost fully in Bagh and to a larger extent in Rawalakot and Muzaffarabad by the efforts of seven Rapid Repair teams of Wapda. Similarly, the telephone network was also partially restored in these areas. He said seven out of 10 microwave stations were now working.
He said 110 Thuraya PCOs and 78 land-line PCOs were set up to offer free calls for three minutes to the affected people.
He said water supply in Muzaffarabad was also partially restored and three water purification systems from Austria were installed. For maintaining the flow of traffic and maintaining law and order, Maj-Gen Khan said 100 personnel from Islamabad police and 700 from the Punjab had been deployed in AJK.
He said there was adequate food now in the forward areas and medicines, tents and blankets were required. When asked about the complaints that relief was still not reaching many areas, the relief commissioner again asked all the NGOs and volunteers who were personally delivering these to the affected areas to hand the relief items over to the military forward bases for equitable distribution. The News International

UN convenes donors’ meeting on 24th: Rehabilitation, reconstruction:The United Nations has convened a meeting of donor agencies in Geneva on Oct 24 to assess the extent of damage caused by last week’s earthquake and to propose appropriate rehabilitation and reconstruction assistance.“We will be informing the donors in Geneva as to what happened in Azad Kashmir and northern parts of Pakistan due to the deadly Oct 8 earthquake and we hope to get a positive response from the donors’ community,” Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said.Talking to reporters here on Monday, the prime minister said that the initial focus of the Geneva meeting would be on strengthening relief and rescue operation which would then lead to huge rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts.Mr Aziz, who was accompanied by IMF Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato, said he had informed the visiting fund delegation that Pakistan was facing a huge challenge of rehabilitation and reconstruction and needed adequate support of international donor agencies and other institutions.The IMF chief had earlier met President Gen Pervez Musharraf and then held a one-to-one meeting with the prime minister. Later, Mr Aziz and Mr Rato held a meeting which was attended by their aides.Responding to a question, Mr Rato said that Pakistan might have to look into its defence expenditure in the aftermath of the disaster. “I think the defence expenditure has to be reassessed under these circumstances,” he added.“Pakistan is confronting short-term challenges, including the need for emergency support and the need to rebuild in the areas affected by the earthquake,” he said. He added that the IMF would continue to provide policy advice and technical assistance to Pakistan.He also said that “some temporary widening of the budget deficit may be unavoidable,” although the international community was providing assistance to Pakistan.“Further tightening of monetary policy might, however, be necessary,” he said, adding that Pakistan was also confronted with the problem of sharp increases in international oil prices. The authorities, he said, had appropriately allowed a substantial pass-through of this increase into domestic prices for petroleum products to help safeguard the budgetary position.Mr Rato said that acceleration of economic growth had been accompanied by a pick-up in inflation. Efforts to reduce the inflationary pressure and their initial success were welcome, he added.“Over the medium-term, the key challenge for Pakistan is to sustain higher rates of economic growth and ensure that living standard was raised and poverty was reduced and this will require substantial increases in investment,” he said.The strengthening of delivery of public services to the poor was a need which called for continuation of institutional reforms and more domestic resource mobilization to meet higher expenditure in these areas, he added. Dawn

Disaster releif strategy perspective

By Hassan Baig

Nature has its own course of disasters and relief, humans have their own. We all are subjected to disasters followed by relief strategy and its indebtedness. There is no parallel to the recent spell of natural disasters in Pakistan and no match to the public response and unity displayed at this time of trauma and awe. Pakistanis, as if emotionally better equipped this time, contributed in a big way to combat the havoc played with human capital. No one could have imagined the magnitude and scale of this human tragedy. We have seen debris, death and destruction stretching from Islamabad to Balakot to Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). Of course, the world can never be the same again for those who luckily -- or unluckily -- survived. The loss of life is irretrievable, though property is. Who knows what happened to whom, and why? It is beyond the comprehension and faculty of the human mind.Keeping everything aside, the role of the media was highly appreciable. Media people reached the disaster-stricken areas before the rescue teams and highlighted the gruesome pictures, full of woe and helplessness. Every channel was doing its best, as the faces, eyes, innocence, smiles and hopes were all lost in the rubble. The scattered corpses of the old, young and innocent were splashed by the media. A whole generation was lost. This forged the unity of the nation. Emotionally-charged people did everything except being able to bring back the innocent dead to their parents. But questions are still arising regarding the latecomers — the rescuers! Landslides, hilly terrain, disruption in communication links, shortage of helicopters, lack of preparation and lack of disaster relief strategy are some of the excuses. These excuses cannot be the answers.Public response was immense in this tragic time. Truckloads of clothes, food and eatables were sent to the calamity-hit areas. Relief camps were seen in almost every significant nook and corner of the streets along the roads. Apparently, the undisciplined nation and the people of Pakistan were united in these testing times. The Quaid’s slogan of ‘unity, faith, discipline’ became a reality. In fact, the earthquake shook everyone in one way or another. Just imagine the screams and cries of those underneath their houses, schools, hospitals and office buildings, which were converted into heaps of rubble in a matter of a few seconds. The people advanced relief efforts in far-flung areas even before the government did, but they experienced helplessness when it was realised that rescue teams were needed more than the relief efforts. Such was the enormity of the catastrophe that it baffled the people who had arrived there for relief work, but the teams were firmly committed to lessen the pain of the people in the devastated areas. There are no proper words to appreciate their resolve in providing relief to the people who were left at the mercy of nature.The government also responded well in time, although not up to the expectations of the public. The government machinery could not be mobilised soon after the tremors ran amock in Northern Pakistan. A swift action was required; but the delayed action was attributed to various factors. President Musharraf, in his address to the nation on October 12, said that the efforts for the rescue and relief operations were partly delayed due to severely damaged and blocked roads, owing to landslides. The government, he said, was fully conscious of the extent of damage in the affected areas of AJK and Hazara Division of NWFP. He recalled that in the first twelve hours, the scale of tragedy was not exactly known as information was still coming in. He explained that the roads were broken and the communication infrastructure was devastated. Furthermore, a tragedy of such proportions was larger than the entire capacity of the government. In fact, no country has the capacity to immediately deal with a tragedy of such large magnitude when confronted with such a situation. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the United States of America can be quoted as examples. Here the situation is even worse than the Tsunami as the earthquake was more devastating, and it was more difficult to reach victims in the Himalayas than the Tsunami survivors; according to a UN report. But the good news is that the government has set up a Federal Relief Commission for early relief and rehabilitation of the earthquake victims, and Provincial Relief Commissioners have also been put in place to coordinate and contribute in the gigantic task of rehabilitation.The assistance and the role of the international community in the relief and immediate rescue operations were too great to be forgotten. The killer earthquake, which took a toll of more than 50,000 lives and is the worst ever natural disaster in the history of Pakistan, has attracted the attention of the world community. They have given a lot of donations and assistance in relief and rescue operations. Some countries established field hospitals to provide immediate medical relief to the earthquake victims with their own medical teams. The concerns of the international community in such tragic-ridden times are unforgettable. Those who have contributed significantly in the disaster relief operations are the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, Japan, Spain, Switzerland, Iran, India, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh and Hungary.The media, public, government and the international community all did well and are still doing a lot for the rehabilitation of the devastated areas and the people of Pakistan. But much more is required to be done as the government and people of Pakistan are apparently not prepared to combat such natural disasters. Highly responsive and swift government action and better future planning will definitely reduce the losses of life and property. There is a serious need of overhauling and reviewing the disaster relief strategy, which we are lacking.First of all, we are in dire need of research work to chalk out a plan to respond swiftly in times of natural disasters. Pakistan is a country where a full-fledged crisis management centre is urgently required to counter storms, floods, droughts and earthquakes. Second, a robust infrastructure is absolutely necessary in the form of road network, transportation and aviation. Third, stocks and supplies in all parts of the country are necessitated for an efficient management in critical times. Fourth, a strong telecommunication network is a must to face any kind of catastrophe in the future. Lastly, a strong department for emergency service is required sooner than later as a part of crisis management and disaster relief strategy.

The writer is a freelance columnist

The Post

Agony haunts quake victims

By Riaz Missen

The irreparable loss to life and property in Pakistan caused by the deadly earthquake of Saturday has gone far beyond the initial estimates of authorities that put figure merely in hundreds and kept it repeating on the media for the whole day. The destruction of a 10-story building in Islamabad proved just a window on a large landscape: many a towns and villages of Azad Jammu & Kashmir and Northern Areas were completely destroyed.

Earthquake of 7.6 magnitude jolted Islamabad, the federal capital of Pakistan, at 8:52 having epicenter at 93 km in its northeast, somewhere around Line of Control. The deadly tremor shook the land within the radius of 2200 km. Besides completely destroying towns and villages in AJK and NWFP, it shook all the major cities of Punjab.

For 48 hours the aftershocks pushed people into the open air. Private and public offices in Islamabad were closed. Panic hit the capital as reports said the PM secretariat had also developed cracks. The city administration and the relief workers rushed to the damaged building to help people trapped in the rubble. The rescue workers at destroyed site were seen appealing for electric cutters, heavy cranes, search lights, water and juices even after five hours of destruction.

The interior minister reached the spot within two hours followed by the President and PM amidst aftershocks and the announcement by the Met office that tremors would continue for the next 48 hours. The ISPR spokesman told a foreign news channel that the losses of life could reach the figure of 1000. He was confident that Pak Army would tackle the situation arising out of the earth quake. After a week, the estimates have reached now 60,000 amidst fears that the same may rise to 100,000 ; the whole world is now sending rescue workers, helicopters, food and medicine to help the victims of tragedy visiting Pakistan.

The focus lately shifted to rest of the areas as reports of heavy casualties were received from Northern Areas. Many a villages in AJK had disappeared from the face of earth. The AJK president told a private news channel that hospitals had collapsed leaving doctors dead and operation theaters destroyed. He said that Muzaffar Abad had become the city of death.

Heavy casualties were reported in Abottabad and elsewhere in the Hazara division. The electronic media said 80% buildings of the area were collapsed. Soon it became clearly evident that deaths were in thousands. Authorities found it difficult to assess the damage as telecommunication system was destroyed while landslide had closed roads making access to these areas nearly impossible.

There were no equipments to pull the people out of debris. Their relatives spent the night listening to their screams until a deadly silence prevailed. Heavy rain lashed them while they were hungry and had wounds on their bodies and souls.

The next day saw tragedy in details —dead bodies scattered every where on the ground and survivors pointing towards the more under debris. There was none to bury them. People were struck by hopelessness due to bad weather and little prospects of rescue operations.

Children were affected the most by the deadly disaster visiting their villages and home towns. Most of them were in schools and could not find the opportunity to leave the buildings. As roofs fell on them their parents did not come to pull them out. Those who have survived are speechless. Trauma will take time to fade away.

How many lives have been lost, is yet to be known in details. Death causalities are simply numerous. None has time to count the dead bodies or bury them. Health experts say another disaster will visit the area if dead bodies are not buried now.

People have no homes to return. None is waiting for them there but trauma and agonies. The earthquake of only two minutes bridged turned life into death. Parents have lost children, wives their husbands and sisters their brothers. Ordeals and sufferings have no end. The loss is simply irreparable.

Government, NGOs, political parties and welfare organizations have come forward to rescue the people. Society has the responsibility for their habilitation. The international community is sending rescue workers, medicines, tents and helicopters showing solidarity with Pakistanis in their testing hours.

How much time it will take to restore life in death-stricken areas, is anybody’s guess. It is not just a matter of rebuilding communication, education and administrative infrastructure but restoration of normal life. Death and destruction should have brought many psychological problems for the people.

Agonies and traumas worsely affect survivors of wars and natural calamities lowering their chances to live a normal life again. People need every thing they had before the deadly earthquake. They need one thing more: a health system that should not only attend to wounds of their bodies but their souls as well.

ADB lowers Islamabad's growth forecasts

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Tuesday reduced Pakistan’s economic growth forecast to 6.5 per cent owing to higher deficits on fiscal, trade and current account fronts and lower than targeted cotton output during the current fiscal year (2005-06).

In its quarterly Pakistan Economic Outlook, the bank projected trade deficit widening to about $5.8 billion and a negative impact of high oil prices, necessitating revisions in the major economic targets for the year 2005-06.

“If oil prices continue to remain at the current record high level, or rise further, projections for imports, the fiscal deficit and inflation may have to be revised upward,” it said. High oil prices could also adversely affect the global economy, resulting in lower growth of Pakistan’s exports.

“The economy is projected to grow by 6.5 per cent in fiscal year 2006,” the bank said against government’s projections of seven per cent rate of GDP growth.After growing at a very high rates in the last two years, the manufacturing sector is projected to settle down to a more sustainable, but still robust, growth of about 11 per cent in fiscal 2006.

Substantial production capacity built in the last two years will come on line during the year and exemption of major export industries from GST will also boost production.Agricultural growth is also likely to decline in 2006, mainly because of the high base effect, it adds.

“It will be difficult to sustain the last year’s all time high output of cotton because of heavier monsoon rains and greater moisture that increase crop vulnerability to pests. The growth of the agriculture sector is projected at about three per cent in fiscal year 2006. The government had projected a 4.8 per cent growth in agriculture sector during the current year. In the services sector, the rapid growth of telecom services, banking and trade is likely to sustain in 2006.

The ADB said the tightening of monetary policy since last quarter of 2005 and opening up of imports of essential items will dampen inflationary pressures in 2006. However, expansionary fiscal policy, continued high oil prices and the large monetary overhang may make it difficult to reduce inflation significantly. Hence inflation has projected to decline only marginally to 8.5 per cent in 2006, compared with a government target of eight per cent.With high GDP growth, projected double-digit increase in imports and ongoing improvements in tax administration, tax revenues are projected to grow by 17 per cent in 2006.

“However, large increases planned in development expenditure and salaries and pensions of government servants, will contribute to a higher fiscal deficit in 2006,” the ADB said. Imports are projected to grow at a double-digit rate of about 18 per cent in 2006 because of continuing high GDP growth rate and high oil prices. Exports are expected to benefit from liberal incentives for export industries announced in the budget, the textile industry’s restructuring and modernization and the ending of textile quotas since January 2005.

“However, because of the expected slow down of the global economy, export growth will decelerate to about 15 per cent and the trade deficit will widen to about $5.8 billion,” the bank said. This, along with expected increase in the deficit on the services account, will result in an increase in the current deficit to about 2.8 per cent of GDP.

With sound macroeconomic fundamentals, pick-up in private investment and expanding development expenditure, medium-term prospects for the Pakistan economy look good.Improved relations with India and possible increase in bilateral trade will also boost growth in the medium term.

Reduction of external security concerns in the region is also likely to promote foreign investment. This for medium term, it is projected that the high economic growth will be sustained, inflation will come down, the fiscal deficit will remain below four per cent of GDP and the current account deficit will be in the range of 2.5-3 per cent of GDP.Dawn

Water management in South Asia

By Syed Mohammad Ali

Concerns about food security and water scarcity are common to all South Asian countries and regions within them. It is not possible to re-organise states on the basis of river system boundaries to ensure better management of water resources. Yet, greater cooperation is still possible between and within the regional countriesThe increasing threat of scarcity has made water management and ownership issues very important over these past two decades. Like other parts of the world, water resources in South Asia are under increasing pressure due to competing demands. Disregard for upstream and downstream riparian rights is bringing not only countries, but regions within South Asian countries, at loggerheads. The growing differences between India and Pakistan on construction of hydroelectric projects has jeopardised the longstanding Indus Water Treaty. Bangladesh, which shares 54 rivers with India, has developed major disputes with the latter, particularly over the Ganges. As an upper riparian, Nepal faces problems constructing dams due to Indian opposition. Dr Zaigam Habib, writing in the South Asian Journal, identifies a polarisation in South Asia between centralised, supply-side projects and smaller, localised alternatives. Tensions between these contending views have impeded exploitation of the abundant hydel potential in Nepal, which it can use to export electricity to neighbouring countries. While several hydroelectric projects have been discussed between Nepal and India, little progress has been made due to opposition because of environmental concerns and displacement of people and fear of large projects in the seismically active Himalayan region. The alternative view in Nepal has been calling for decentralised, environmentally-benign projects to meet Nepal’s needs rather than those of other countries. Bhutan’s water policy has successfully balanced ecological and socio-cultural concerns with the water uses. As a result it has seen impressive inflow of revenues from the sale of electricity to India. These inflows are growing significantly in relation to the country’s GDP. However, one wonders if Bhutan will be able to maintain this balance if it builds more hydroelectric projects. The lessons learnt in this regard are not only relevant for Bhutan but also Nepal and other neighbouring countries.Unfortunately, economists involved in the reform processes underway in South Asia have generally considered development and environmental concerns as mutually exclusive. Environmental concerns have therefore been seen as obstacles to economic growth. World Bank and the Asian Development Bank officials have also been sympathetic to such myopic arguments. Despite the rhetoric, donor-imposed interventions have focused on making public utilities cost-efficient rather than equitable or sustainable. Moreover, the privatisation of water services has done little to provide safe drinking water to all, promote agricultural diversifications or spare more water for the environment and future generations. It is time water sector experts realised that their generalised prescriptions for water management will not work. Plans for harnessing water resources cannot afford to neglect sustainability. We also need specific and localised interventions to determine water stress levels and improve the efficiency of water use other than irrigation and in saline areas. However, articulation of water-related interests at the local level has not received attention and civil society debates concerning water issues remain rather limited. There is an absence of constructive discourse between the technocrats and the environmentalists. Political parties have also not gone beyond regional water demands. Politicians have certainly not focused on solutions like developing water storage capacities in their own constituencies. Instead, technological approaches have gained support. An example of this is the physical integration of river systems, which can turn water resource development plans into a competition among various regions. This has happened despite the already serious differences over water sharing within different states in India, like the Ravi-Beas dispute between Punjab and Haryana or the Cauvery dispute among Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Pondicherry. In Pakistan, there is a water-sharing dispute between Sindh and the Punjab and the NWFP opposes construction of dams over Indus. Despite the tensions, the Indian government has decided to link up 37 rivers to transfer water for drinking, drought relief and irrigation from water-surplus to water-deficient regions. However, according to the Indian River Research Centre, it is impossible to accurately determine which river has surplus or insufficient water and to transfer water to another river system without causing socio-political upheavals and ecological damage. sBesides escalating socio-political tensions, the ecological impact of transferring water from one river system to another is disturbing. A naturally flowing river system delivers nutrients to the seas; this supplements complex food chains; assists ecologically and culturally important fisheries; and protects wetlands and safeguards fertile deltas. A river has to flow its natural course to perform these versatile functions. Diverting it can have significant unrealised consequences. It is clear that concerns about food security and water scarcity are common to all South Asian countries and regions within them. It is not possible to re-organise states on the basis of river boundaries to ensure better management of water resources. Yet, greater cooperation is still possible between and within the regional countries. But it is necessary to implement more localised measures before attempting a more comprehensive approach to water management. Realising the link between pollution, ecological degradation and water scarcity is the first step in this regard. This way, we can promote participatory efforts to revive watersheds and river basins. Alongside water conservation efforts at the grassroots level, these should address the growing water scarcity in the South Asian region.

The author is a development consultant and an international fellow of the Open Society Institutes network. He can be reached at syedmohdali555@yahoo.com

Daily Times

Crude oil prices to stay higher

By Riaz Missen

The oil marketing companies have significantly increased prices of motor gasoline, HOBC, light diesel and kerosene oil in Pakistan up to 7-15 % for the fortnight effective from 1st October. The reason behind this development is the soaring crude prices in the international market that has witnessed upward trend since 2001.

The daily crude oil production of 1.5 million barrel in the Gulf of Mexico has completely stopped. A total of 20 refineries accounting 4.8 million barrels a day were shut down last weekend while seven have no restart timetable. Experts say the prices may go higher touching the figure of $ 70 per barrel by the end of this year.

Two deadly hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have hit Orleans, Texas and Louisiana worsely affecting oil refineries and bringing down their yield as lower as 20%. Qatrina and Rita have become yet another factor to raise oil prices in the international market when the world economy has yet to come out of the shocks generated by the US-led war on terror.

Oil prices are shooting up since 2001 when they used to hover around $ 25 per barrel. The US got its innocence hurt through attacks on twin-towers that year allegedly by Al-Qaeda elements sheltered by Afghanistan. After sprinkling this poorest nation of the world with Daisy-cutters, it moved to oil rich region, Middle East, to oust a chronic dictator Saddam. Violence could not be confined to only Iraq, however. Algeria became subjected to civil war while Saudi Arabia witnessed deadly acts of sabotage.

As the war erupted in the areas adjacent to the oil-rich regions of Middle East and Central Asia, the oil prices shot up. War risk charges raised the supply cost. From oil firms to the shipping companies, all benefited this growing business. The coffers of the OPEC countries— Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela— simply overflowed.

While the fate of Middle East hangs in balance due to war on terror and Afghanistan is not yet out of the spell of anarchy, the US is not willing to remove its airbases from Central Asia where semi-democratic regimes are presumably crumbling under the threat of violence from the religious extremists.

Though objectives of war are as noble as establishing lasting peace in the world through rooting out militancy and installing democratic regimes in the energy-rich regions but going by the outcomes it seems to be an effort to deprive the world economy of a chance to grow freely in the global age.

Prince Saud Al-Faisal has recently warned that the US pullout from Iraq would only result into anarchy. On soaring gasoline prices he says there is no shortage of oil. Rather, the limited US refining capacity is the real problem. He insists that construction of two refineries in the kingdom will bring the crude price down by $ 20. However, he does not see any improvement in the relations between the Shia and Sunni communities of Iraq despite formulation of a constitution.

Gasoline prices hit $ 50 per barrel last year followed by appeals to the OPEC countries by the international financial institutions for more supplies. Despite warnings of the IFIs that such a trend could devastate the world economy, the appeal to hold them in check fell merely on deaf ears.

The leading world economies are confronting high inflation that experts insist is due to high crude prices. German inflation figures last month showed unprecedented increase as they jumped to 2.5 percent from 1.9 percent of August 2005. Forecast about eurozone is 2.3 percent following an increase of 2.1 percent last month. United States has witnessed surge in consumer prices by 0.5 percent.

While in the developed countries the political repercussions may not go beyond influencing the electoral results i.e. Germany, it means only disaster for poor nations. High interest rates, another result of soaring energy prices, may slow down investment in different sectors of economy pushing people out of jobs or slashing their wages. Growing frustration among the masses due to soaring prices of essential commodities may be exploited by vested interests. The absence of good governance structure and the opportunism of political parties can make situation the worst.

Developing countries like Pakistan have subsidized oil prices to keep them affordable for middle classes. But it is not definitely an effective measure to resolve the problem as the burden is to be shifted to taxpayers at the end of the day. Moreover the development projects like constructing dams, expanding road/rail infrastructure ,providing gas/electricity, clean water and health facilities will need more funds for their completion due to rise in inflation. Shifting burden of taxes on lower and middle classes without providing any social security umbrella does not make sense at all but the governments in developing countries have little options otherwise.

Protecting consumers through enhancing their purchasing power has to become the ultimate objective of the government policies in the era of open markets. Political parties need to be democratic as well as accountable from within; they have to be pro-people rather than being representative of the few, blessed with wealth and social prestige. When economy is going to be liberalized, these social monopolies have to end as well.

A recent World Bank forecast says Pakistan will witness slump in GDP growth rate by two percent this year as compared to 8.4 percent of 2004. Further, the current trends in FDI inflows can be kept intact only through continuation of economic policies that have made the country one of the fastest growing economies of the Asian region.

The recent call of the united opposition in Pakistan to launch protest campaign against the government is an unfortunate development at this juncture. Though it has got every right to express its concerns on various policies of the government yet the mode of protest is not inspired by reason — shutter downs and wheel-jam strikes will not serve the cause of the lower and middle strata of population already hit hard by soaring oil prices.

Political parties of Pakistan need to be partner of country’s progress through showing trust in the public institutions and engaging in efforts to removing anomalies that impede their capacity to work in a transparent manner; they should desist from any effort to bring political change before time through adopting violent means. Stability of political system is one of the important factors for economic growth, a prerequisite for a dignified survival of Pakistan in the global age.